Dienstag, 18. Dezember 2007

Bloomberg report shows annual inflation rate at 38.4%

Bloomberg report shows annual inflation rate at 38.4%

Double Digit Inflation is Here
December 16, 2007
by Michael Fox

Buried deeply within Bloomberg’s recap of November’s various and sundry economic statistics, presented with the usual obfuscations and reassurances of stability in the face of unfolding financial catastrophe is one number that somehow manages to reflect what no other US government statistic does: reveals the truth. Just to be certain it isn’t ever noticed, you’ll find it nestled in the 23rd paragraph of the article, precisely when the reader’s eyes have completely glazed over from statistics fatigue. The number in question is the “wholesale price index.”

I won’t make you wait: it’s 3.2%. For one month. On an annualized basis, that is (without compounding) 38.4%. It is the highest increase in 34 years, and if you remember the inflation that we endured in the mid 1970s, you know that this does not bode well for next year’s consumer prices.

What’s unique about this double-digit inflation statistic is that every other government economic statistic has been reconfigured in recent years to reflect a sunnier picture than would have been revealed by the accurate statistics, as they had always been reported. Unlike, say the unemployment statistics, which now do not consider those whose unemployment insurance has expired - and, God knows how many hundreds of thousands there are of those right now, even if Sec. Chow insists we have only 4.6% unemployment (wanna buy a lovely bridge in Brooklyn?)

So why is this number trustworthy? Well, unlike the Consumer Price Index, which supposedly tells us what the inflation rate is, it doesn’t exclude the causal aspects of real-world inflation: food and energy. The average American’s monthly expenses are dramatically affected by those two expenses more than any other single regular expense. The other excluded element is housing, which in rents is expressed by the published annual inflation rate itself (in cities with rent control), but has become very significant with the preponderance of ARMs, but that, too goes un-included.

However, the wholesale price index must include the costs of fuel and food, because they fall within the manufacturer’s costs. So be prepared, because the wholesale price increases of November (and, no doubt, December…) will be coming to a store near you in 2008. And you never will have heard a word about it on the TV news.
http://tinyurl.com/3xhpfh

Taser parties stunning success with female clients

Taser parties stunning success with female clients
Nov. 29, 2007 12:00 AM
Social events aimed at female clients and their personal safety
Nicole Gomez
Special for The Republic

Pack up your Tupperware, and get ready for a new kind of party.

Dana Shafman, founder of Shieldher Inc., has recently started sponsoring Taser parties, giving women a chance to buy Tasers for $300, or $350 with a laser beam to help with aiming.

Shafman's parties allow women to get together to discuss concerns and learn about the Taser C2, the newest consumer Taser that is similar to the device police officers use. "I felt that we have Tupperware parties and candle parties to protect our food and house, so why not have a Taser party to learn how to protect our lives and bodies," Shafman said.

She has had parties in Phoenix and Scottsdale by invitation. Guests have the opportunity to shoot the Taser for the first time at a cardboard cutout during the parties. For safety reasons, no alcohol is served and no one is actually Tasered.

After her first Taser party in Scottsdale recently, Shafman said, "I think the party was spectacular. It opened up opportunities for people to ask questions and get informed about the Tasers."

Debi McMahon was excited to get her Taser activated.

"I feel like I'm 6 feet tall and 250 pounds. I'm going to buy one for my mom. It's going to be her 81st birthday present."

The Tasers come in color choices of pink, blue, silver or black, which caused the women at the Scottsdale party to worry that their small children might see the colored Tasers as a toy.

Caily Scheur, a mother of two, said, "I want to protect my children from (the Taser) just as much as I want to protect myself by using it."

Scheur said that once the Taser enters her house, she will keep it in a locked box under her bed with the key high enough so her children cannot open the box.

But some of the other women planned on telling their children what the Taser does and why it should be handled only by Mommy and Daddy.

Shafman created Shieldher Inc. in February and became the only Taser party coordinator in the nation, she said.

Shafman used to sleep with knives in her nightstand for protection until she came across Taser International Inc.

"I did not understand why they weren't doing marketing," she said, so the idea materialized to sell the Tasers at house parties or office parties. Shafman learned more about the product and volunteered to be shot by a Taser so she could inform others about the product. "I want to provide something that will allow people to protect themselves in and outside of their house."

The Taser C2, which is not considered a firearm, comes with a manual, training DVD and one replaceable C2 cartridge that loads into the device. The cartridge contains two small probes that can reach an attacker up to 15 feet away. After the trigger safety cover is released, the Taser is aimed at the target and the push of a button to activates the probes. The small probes either attach onto the attacker's clothing or into their skin, releasing up to 50,000 volts in their body and rendering them motionless. The Taser sends volts for a maximum of 30 seconds, compared with police Tasers that only last for five seconds. Shafman said the consumer model's voltage lasts longer to give the owner more time to escape.

There is no special certification to own one, but owners must be at least 18 and pass a background check before the Taser can be activated. A call to Taser headquarters or accessing their Web site will activate the device once the background check is complete. Shafman warned that the device is prohibited in seven states, so check the Taser Web site for more information before purchasing or traveling with it.

"As a dealer, I take a cut of all the Taser C2's and Taser C2 accessories that pass through Shieldher," she said.

Shafman also said the party hosts will receive a free Taser if 10 devices are sold during their party. She hopes to get the parties going nationwide, sending out representatives and attending the parties herself when possible.
http://tinyurl.com/2v6kb7

US Food Inflation Parallels 70s on Ethanol Boom

US Food Inflation Parallels 70s on Ethanol Boom
December 17, 2007
by Christine Stebbins

CHICAGO - Rising US food inflation, now a 25-year high, is reminiscent of the 1970s and will continue for the next five years due to growing world economies, increased food demand and a sharp expansion of corn-based ethanol production, a top food economist said Friday.

"What happened in the early '70s and what is happening today is that we have moved food input price to a new plateau. Ultimately, the consumer is going to have to absorb those increased costs," said Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, who on Thursday released a study that looked at food inflation data going back to the 1960s.

Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, the benchmark for commodity grain and soy markets, have risen to multi-year highs this year. Wheat hit an all-time high of US$9.81-3/4 a bushel just on Friday. Soybeans on Friday reached over US$11.60 a bushel, a price not seen since 1973, and corn rose to US$4.37-1/4 in February, the highest level in a decade.

"The underpinnings for the higher commodity prices are world economic growth, a weak dollar and increased use of our corn crop for the production of ethanol," Lapp told Reuters in an interview.

While most of the US corn crop, or 43 percent is fed to livestock to produce meat, dairy products and eggs, an increasing percentage is being used to produce ethanol. Twenty-four percent of this year's corn crop will be turned into ethanol, up from just 14 percent two years ago.

The higher cost of raw commodities contributed to the Consumer Price Index for food, a broadly used gauge for inflation, which rose to an annual rate of 5.4 percent during the first 10 months of 2007, a level not seen since 1980, according to Advanced Economic's study.

"During the next five years, food inflation is forecast to increase by an average of 7.5 percent, well above the 2.3 percent average of the past 10 years.

"The US experienced a similar period of rising commodity prices and food inflation in the 1970s. Commodity prices doubled ... this ultimately resulted in food inflation from 1972 to 1981 averaging 8.2 percent," the study said.

Traditionally, the food industry -- processors, grocery stores, restaurants, and others -- absorbed the cost of higher commodity prices within its operating margins as the rise was temporary given the competitiveness of retailers.

But times are changing, said Lapp, who is a consultant to the food and agricultural industries.

"The difference in the current environment is that we're in the midst of a sustained increase," he added.

The world is not going back to the long-term averages -- US$2.40 a bushel corn, US$3.50 wheat or US$5.50 soybeans, he said.

From 2008-2012, Lapp is estimating that CBOT corn prices will average US$4 a bushel, wheat US$6.50 a bushel and soybeans US$10 a bushel.

Experts agree that global demand for food and rising energy prices are two key drivers of rising inflation, but they differ on how much of an influence corn prices are having on food inflation.

Another study released by analytical firm Informa Economics this week said that historically, there has been very little relationship between corn prices and food inflation.

In the past, for every dollar an American consumer spends on food, only 19 cents goes to the farmer, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The balance, or 81 cents, goes to labor, fuels transportation, packaging, and other non-farm costs.

"The input costs increases are tremendous. Without any relief, the only recourse is to pass along some of the costs to consumers," Lapp said. (Reporting by Christine Stebbins; Editing by Marguerita Choy).
http://tinyurl.com/2lmvcl

Wider Spying Fuels Aid Plan for Telecom Industry

Wider Spying Fuels Aid Plan for Telecom Industry
Published: December 16, 2007
By ERIC LICHTBLAU, JAMES RISEN and SCOTT SHANE

WASHINGTON — For months, the Bush administration has waged a high-profile campaign, including personal lobbying by President Bush and closed-door briefings by top officials, to persuade Congress to pass legislation protecting companies from lawsuits for aiding the National Security Agency’s warrantless eavesdropping program.

But the battle is really about something much bigger. At stake is the federal government’s extensive but uneasy partnership with industry to conduct a wide range of secret surveillance operations in fighting terrorism and crime.

The N.S.A.’s reliance on telecommunications companies is broader and deeper than ever before, according to government and industry officials, yet that alliance is strained by legal worries and the fear of public exposure.

To detect narcotics trafficking, for example, the government has been collecting the phone records of thousands of Americans and others inside the United States who call people in Latin America, according to several government officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the program remains classified. But in 2004, one major phone carrier balked at turning over its customers’ records. Worried about possible privacy violations or public relations problems, company executives declined to help the operation, which has not been previously disclosed.

In a separate N.S.A. project, executives at a Denver phone carrier, Qwest, refused in early 2001 to give the agency access to their most localized communications switches, which primarily carry domestic calls, according to people aware of the request, which has not been previously reported. They say the arrangement could have permitted neighborhood-by-neighborhood surveillance of phone traffic without a court order, which alarmed them.

The federal government’s reliance on private industry has been driven by changes in technology. Two decades ago, telephone calls and other communications traveled mostly through the air, relayed along microwave towers or bounced off satellites. The N.S.A. could vacuum up phone, fax and data traffic merely by erecting its own satellite dishes. But the fiber optics revolution has sent more and more international communications by land and undersea cable, forcing the agency to seek company cooperation to get access.

After the disclosure two years ago that the N.S.A. was eavesdropping on the international communications of terrorism suspects inside the United States without warrants, more than 40 lawsuits were filed against the government and phone carriers. As a result, skittish companies and their lawyers have been demanding stricter safeguards before they provide access to the government and, in some cases, are refusing outright to cooperate, officials said.

“It’s a very frayed and strained relationship right now, and that’s not a good thing for the country in terms of keeping all of us safe,” said an industry official who believes that immunity is critical for the phone carriers. “This episode has caused companies to change their conduct in a variety of ways.”

With a vote in the Senate on the issue expected as early as Monday, the Bush administration has intensified its efforts to win retroactive immunity for companies cooperating with counterterrorism operations.

“The intelligence community cannot go it alone,” Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed article Monday urging Congress to pass the immunity provision. “Those in the private sector who stand by us in times of national security emergencies deserve thanks, not lawsuits.”

Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey echoed that theme in an op-ed article of his own in The Los Angeles Times on Wednesday, saying private companies would be reluctant to provide their “full-hearted help” if they were not given legal protections.

The government’s dependence on the phone industry, driven by the changes in technology and the Bush administration’s desire to expand surveillance capabilities inside the United States, has grown significantly since the Sept. 11 attacks. The N.S.A., though, wanted to extend its reach even earlier. In December 2000, agency officials wrote a transition report to the incoming Bush administration, saying the agency must become a “powerful, permanent presence” on the commercial communications network, a goal that they acknowledged would raise legal and privacy issues.

While the N.S.A. operates under restrictions on domestic spying, the companies have broader concerns — customers’ demands for privacy and shareholders’ worries about bad publicity.

In the drug-trafficking operation, the N.S.A. has been helping the Drug Enforcement Administration in collecting the phone records showing patterns of calls between the United States, Latin America and other drug-producing regions. The program dates to the 1990s, according to several government officials, but it appears to have expanded in recent years.

Officials say the government has not listened to the communications, but has instead used phone numbers and e-mail addresses to analyze links between people in the United States and overseas. Senior Justice Department officials in the Bush and Clinton administrations signed off on the operation, which uses broad administrative subpoenas but does not require court approval to demand the records.

At least one major phone carrier — whose identity could not be confirmed — refused to cooperate, citing concerns in 2004 that the subpoenas were overly broad, government and industry officials said. The executives also worried that if the program were exposed, the company would face a public-relations backlash.

The D.E.A. declined to comment on the call-tracing program, except to say that it “exercises its legal authority” to issue administrative subpoenas. The N.S.A. also declined to comment on it.

In a separate program, N.S.A. officials met with the Qwest executives in February 2001 and asked for more access to their phone system for surveillance operations, according to people familiar with the episode. The company declined, expressing concerns that the request was illegal without a court order.

While Qwest’s refusal was disclosed two months ago in court papers, the details of the N.S.A.’s request were not. The agency, those knowledgeable about the incident said, wanted to install monitoring equipment on Qwest’s “Class 5” switching facilities, which transmit the most localized calls. Limited international traffic also passes through the switches.

A government official said the N.S.A. intended to single out only foreigners on Qwest’s network, and added that the agency believed Joseph Nacchio, then the chief executive of Qwest, and other company officials misunderstood the agency’s proposal. Bob Toevs, a Qwest spokesman, said the company did not comment on matters of national security.

Other N.S.A. initiatives have stirred concerns among phone company workers. A lawsuit was filed in federal court in New Jersey challenging the agency’s wiretapping operations. It claims that in February 2001, just days before agency officials met with Qwest officials, the N.S.A. met with AT&T officials to discuss replicating a network center in Bedminster, N.J., to give the agency access to all the global phone and e-mail traffic that ran through it.

The accusations rely in large part on the assertions of a former engineer on the project. The engineer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said in an interview that he participated in numerous discussions with N.S.A. officials about the proposal. The officials, he said, discussed ways to duplicate the Bedminster system in Maryland so the agency “could listen in” with unfettered access to communications that it believed had intelligence value and store them for later review. There was no discussion of limiting the monitoring to international communications, he said.

“At some point,” he said, “I started feeling something isn’t right.”

Two other AT&T employees who worked on the proposal discounted his claims, saying in interviews that the project had simply sought to improve the N.S.A.’s internal communications systems and was never designed to allow the agency access to outside communications. Michael Coe, a company spokesman, said: “AT&T is fully committed to protecting our customers’ privacy. We do not comment on matters of national security.”

But lawyers for the plaintiffs say that if the suit were allowed to proceed, internal AT&T documents would verify the engineer’s account.

“What he saw,” said Bruce Afran, a New Jersey lawyer representing the plaintiffs along with Carl Mayer, “was decisive evidence that within two weeks of taking office, the Bush administration was planning a comprehensive effort of spying on Americans’ phone usage.”

The same lawsuit accuses Verizon of setting up a dedicated fiber optic line from New Jersey to Quantico, Va., home to a large military base, allowing government officials to gain access to all communications flowing through the carrier’s operations center. In an interview, a former consultant who worked on internal security said he had tried numerous times to install safeguards on the line to prevent hacking on the system, as he was doing for other lines at the operations center, but his ideas were rejected by a senior security official.

The facts behind a class-action lawsuit in San Francisco are also shrouded in government secrecy. The case relies on disclosures by a former AT&T employee, Mark Klein, who says he stumbled upon a secret room at an company facility in San Francisco that was reserved for the N.S.A. Company documents he obtained and other former AT&T employees have lent some support to his claim that the facility gave the agency access to a range of domestic and international Internet traffic.

The telecommunications companies that gave the government access are pushing hard for legal protection from Congress. As part of a broader plan to restructure the N.S.A.’s wiretapping authority, the Senate Intelligence Committee agreed to give immunity to the telecommunications companies, but the Judiciary Committee refused to do so. The White House has threatened to veto any plan that left out immunity, as the House bill does.

“Congress shouldn’t grant amnesty to companies that broke the law by conspiring to illegally spy on Americans” said Kate Martin, director of the Center for National Security Studies in Washington.

But Bobby R. Inman, a retired admiral and former N.S.A. director who has publicly criticized the agency’s domestic eavesdropping program, says he still supports immunity for the companies that cooperated.

“The responsibility ought to be on the government, not on the companies that are trying to help with national security requirements,” Admiral Inman said. If the companies decided to stop cooperating, he added, “it would have a huge impact on both the timeliness and availability of critical intelligence.”
http://tinyurl.com/36uopl

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