Army warns of Iraq dam catastrophe
Army warns of Iraq dam catastrophe
Date: October 31 2007
Amit Paley in Mosul
THE largest dam in Iraq is in danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a huge wave of water, possibly drowning 500,000 people, new assessments by the US Army Corps of Engineers show.
A collapse would put Mosul under 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad under 4.5 metres, according to Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager.
Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the Mosul dam had alarmed US officials, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub.
"The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," an Army Corps of Engineers draft report says.
At the same time, a US reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according to Iraqi officials and a report by a US oversight agency that was to be published yesterday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $US27 million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.
The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and US officials over the severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix it. The Army Corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and too expensive.
The debate has taken place largely out of public view because Iraqi and US embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies - commissioned by the US government for at least $6 million - so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report were read to The Washington Post by an Army Corps official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Post also reviewed an Army Corps PowerPoint presentation on the dam.
"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable risks," the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, and the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, wrote in a May 3 letter to the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 metres deep at Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property."
Sitting in a picturesque valley 70 kilometres along the Tigris River north of Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem - it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.
Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s, engineers began injecting the dam with grout, a liquefied mixture of cement and other additives. More than 45,000 tonnes of material have been pumped into the dam since then in a continual effort to prevent the structure, which can hold up to 11 million megalitres of water, from collapsing.
After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 US officials began to study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.
"Iraqi government believes dam is safe," concluded the Army Corps presentation, dated December 2006.
In an interview on Monday Iraq's Minister of Water Resources, Abdul Latif Rashid, said he believed the safety situation was not critical and that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than US reports.
"Is the dam going to collapse tomorrow?" he said. "I can't tell you that. Let us hope that we avoid a disaster and focus now on a solution."
The Army Corps has recommended that a partially built dam at Badush, which lies between the dam and Mosul, be finished as a stopgap measure in case the Mosul dam collapses.
But Iraqi officials would rather spend $300 million on a smaller version of the Badush dam that would generate electricity and provide irrigation, but not serve as a safety valve in case Mosul dam breaks.
http://tinyurl.com/32nz7k
Date: October 31 2007
Amit Paley in Mosul
THE largest dam in Iraq is in danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a huge wave of water, possibly drowning 500,000 people, new assessments by the US Army Corps of Engineers show.
A collapse would put Mosul under 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad under 4.5 metres, according to Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager.
Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the Mosul dam had alarmed US officials, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub.
"The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," an Army Corps of Engineers draft report says.
At the same time, a US reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according to Iraqi officials and a report by a US oversight agency that was to be published yesterday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $US27 million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.
The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and US officials over the severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix it. The Army Corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and too expensive.
The debate has taken place largely out of public view because Iraqi and US embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies - commissioned by the US government for at least $6 million - so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report were read to The Washington Post by an Army Corps official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Post also reviewed an Army Corps PowerPoint presentation on the dam.
"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable risks," the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, and the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, wrote in a May 3 letter to the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 metres deep at Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property."
Sitting in a picturesque valley 70 kilometres along the Tigris River north of Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem - it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.
Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s, engineers began injecting the dam with grout, a liquefied mixture of cement and other additives. More than 45,000 tonnes of material have been pumped into the dam since then in a continual effort to prevent the structure, which can hold up to 11 million megalitres of water, from collapsing.
After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 US officials began to study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.
"Iraqi government believes dam is safe," concluded the Army Corps presentation, dated December 2006.
In an interview on Monday Iraq's Minister of Water Resources, Abdul Latif Rashid, said he believed the safety situation was not critical and that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than US reports.
"Is the dam going to collapse tomorrow?" he said. "I can't tell you that. Let us hope that we avoid a disaster and focus now on a solution."
The Army Corps has recommended that a partially built dam at Badush, which lies between the dam and Mosul, be finished as a stopgap measure in case the Mosul dam collapses.
But Iraqi officials would rather spend $300 million on a smaller version of the Badush dam that would generate electricity and provide irrigation, but not serve as a safety valve in case Mosul dam breaks.
http://tinyurl.com/32nz7k
bin66 - 1. Nov, 02:04
